Last month's newsletter introduced 3 of the elements of the scientific method. This month we will finalize this 3 part series as we explore the final 3 steps to "Fire Investigations and The Scientific Method."

ANALYZE THE DATA

Inductive reasoning is now applied to the data you have collected. This is the process whereby all the data is analyzed under the light of the investigator's knowledge, experience, and training. Speculative or subjective data, not readily proven by observation or experiment, cannot be included in the analysis.

In helping to determine the direction of a fire investigation Robert Howell, with The Hartford, looks to qualified, respected and active local fire investigators. Howell says, "I gain the advantage of prompt access to the investigating official fire personnel for their first blush/first on scene, vantage point. This saves time and the need to second-guess the official report weeks before it is even ready. For this reason, I like to use this type of investigator initially and on most losses where there is any possibility of questionable origin, subrogation, etc."

DEVELOP A HYPOTHESIS

Based on the inductive reasoning, the investigator should be able to generate a hypothesis, or a number of hypotheses, to explain the origin and cause of the fire. These hypotheses can only be proffered based on the empirical data collected.

TEST THE HYPOTHESES

All other reasonable hypotheses should be eliminated. The investigator does not have a truly provable hypothesis unless it can stand the test of careful and serious challenge. The principle of deductive reasoning, whereby the investigator compares the hypothesis to all known facts, tests the reliability of the final determination. If the hypothesis cannot withstand the factual challenge of deductive reasoning, it should be discarded as not provable and a new hypothesis tested. This testing process may require the collection of additional data and/or the re-analysis of existing data. This process should continue until all feasible hypotheses have been tested and eliminated, leaving only one that withstands the gauntlet of deductive reasoning. Otherwise, the fire cause should be listed as "undetermined."

During his twenty-two year career as an insurance claims adjuster John W. Gartling, with International Catastrophe Insurance Managers, LLC has seen numerous changes including new hi-tech tools and solutions to old problems. Gartling says, "However, the one constant that hasn't changed is the paradigm founded on the principle that there aren't any substitutes for a well-founded and tested hypothesis, provided by a credible expert witness."

Once the final determination of origin and cause has been made, an incident scenario or failure analysis should be prepared. Commonly referred to as a fire investigation report, this document should explain the origin, cause, ignition source, fire spread, act or omission which allowed the ignition source to come in contact with the first fuel ignited, and responsibility for the incident. Conclusions drawn should be developed using the scientific method.

One Powerful Tool - PDA's

In part one of this series on fire investigations we mentioned the technical aspects now a part of many investigations. One device that is common to many in the workplace and is adaptable for specialized use, such as fire investigations, is a personal digital assistant (PDA).

PDA's can make documenting information at a fire scene, during testing and interviewing more efficient. Carrying the proper forms, checklists and interview questions for nearly every imaginable fire investigation is more manageable when you have the power of 8MB RAM in a hand held device.

Documenting information from a fire scene is never easy, however, when prompted by a PDA, vital evidence is less likely to be forgotten. Adjusters and investigators are asked to handle an increasing number of claims. During the period that a claim is still open an investigator can have vital in-formation with them at all times without lugging around multiple files. Follow-up calls can be received and interviews can be conducted while in the field.

Customized PDA Screen

All the technology in the world does not diminish the importance of a well-qualified fire investigator, however, using all the resources available increases efficiency and provides a superior investigation to insurance and litigation professionals. Uses for PDA's are expanding and prices continue to fall. Manufacturers include: Compaq, Handspring, HP, Palm, Casio, and more. For further information go on line and search "personal digital assistant.

Copyright 2001 Professional Investigative Engineers. All rights reserved.